Net Average Scoring Impact – Week 11

I want to start this post with some full disclosure. The previous weeks ratings had an error in the formula that affected the impact of a loss to the point of inflating performances rather than detracting from them. As a Baylor fan, I was checking my work against both Baylor and our competitors for the national title game: Oregon, FSU, Alabama and Ohio State. Problem being that all those teams were undefeated, so I didn’t see the impact. It was pointed out to me recently and I have a fix in for this weeks ratings.

This whole metric is a work in progress, and I admit to rushing it out there, but I claim over-eagerness as my defense and will continue to be very open about my work as it develops.

Housecleaning out of the way, on to the numbers! I’ve decided to stop eliminating the other conferences and just going with what the picture is showing us. This allows us to compare against the Top 25 polls and other metrics to see any outliers. Below is the top 25 teams, plus the Big XII.

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Advanced Statistics – % of Available Yards – Week 10

I love advanced college football statistics, which makes the 2013 season about as fun as it gets when you’re a fan of the Baylor Bears.  Each week I generate a series of metrics that I’m hoping to build into some sort of predictive model, but until that’s done, I get the chance to see Baylor pop up as one of the best teams in the nation over and over again as I look at various metrics for the current year.

This metric is % of Available Yards.  It’s fairly straight-forward: when a team takes possession of the ball, how many of the yards it is possible for them to gain do they actually end of gaining?  If they get the ball off of a touchback, it’s placed at their 20 yard line.  That means there are 80 yards available to them to gain.    If they drive to the opponent’s 20 and kick a field goal, they would have gained 60 yards.  60 yards gained / 80 available to gain = 75% of available yards gained.

This is a great way to determine how efficiently a team uses their possessions.  If that percentage is small, then they will likely be playing a field position game, depending on good defense and special teams to put their offense in position to score.  If the number is larger, then their offense is showing itself capable of taking advantage of their opportunities.

I ranked the teams in the AQ conferences and here’s how the top 25 teams, plus any Big XII outside of the top 25, in % of Available Yards looks for Week 10:

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